Well, it’s certain from the headlines that IDC likes to make some bold, yet calculated predictions. And their predictions for this year have got even bolder, that said it might be an understatement for what they predict for Windows Phone.
As per IDC’s latest predictions, Android is most likely to reach its dominant peak in the year 2012 and it’s likely to head down southwards in the next four years, dropping by about eight percentage points. As per the report, Android’s shipments will increase by 9.5% from 2012 to 2016, but their market share will decline to 52.9% then from today’s 62%.
Coming to their prediction on the Windows Phone, IDC states that their market share will grow roughly by about 46.2% over the next four years, catapulting them ahead of Apple’s iOS which will still be hovering around 19%.
Also IDC predicts that the total number of mobile phones (smart & feature phones) will register a marginal increase to 1.8 billion from last year’s 1.7 billion units. The reason for the slow growth is being attributed to the 10% drop in the shipment of feature phones. As smartphone sales are forecasted to grow to 38.8% year on year reaching 686 million units for 2012. Though, feature phones will still form the major part with about 61% of the total mobile market.
As per IDC, Android and iOS devices have been the dominant seller in the first quarter of 2012, as they accounted for nearly 8 out of 10 smartphones shipped in Q1, which gives them a combine market share of a whopping 82% compared to 54.4% in Q1 of 2011.
We are surprised by IDC’s “optimistic” predictions for Windows Phone, though it must have come as a shot in the arm for Nokia which is fighting hard to stay afloat in the market and burning through its cash reserves in the process.